Turnout key to outcome of by-election

The Herald
The Glasgow North East by-election candidates yesterday made a frantic last push for votes, amid fears of an appallingly low turnout.

With heavy rain forecast for later today, and turnout only 21% at June’s European election, all sides urged their supporters to make an effort and go to the polls.

Party officials estimate turnout could be as low as 25%, with 35% on the optimistic side.

Anything below 19% would be a UK record.

A low poll could benefit the far-right British National Party, which hopes to save its deposit for the first time in a Scottish election.

It could also bring an upset within reach of the SNP.

Candidate David Kerr admitted he was still trailing Labour’s Willie Bain, but said a last-minute swing meant victory was possible. “We’re probably two-nil down with 20 minutes to go in the game,” he said, while leafleting with Alex Salmond on Alexandra Parade.

“That means we’ve got a chance going into polling day, and hopefully we’ve got a good chance.”

The First Minister echoed the comments, but stopped short of predicting a win: “I think the ground is shifting substantially towards us and we are fighting it to the wire.”

Labour, who have grown increasingly confident of victory over the five-month campaign, showed no sign of tremors, but also appealed for their supporters to turn out, not just sit back until the General Election.

Knocking doors on the Carron estate where he grew up, Bain said: “This election is going to be close and I will be fighting for every vote to ensure we have a local voice to stand up for our area.”

Campaigning alongside him, Douglas Alexander, the International Development Secretary, said a high turnout would help prevent a BNP breakthrough.

“The constituents of Glasgow North East have an opportunity to stand together and reject the politics of division and hatred. That’s one of the main reasons I hope people turn out and vote.”

Earlier in the day, the transvestite stand-up comedian Eddie Izzard dropped into Labour’s Campaign HQ to lend Bain support.

The pair met earlier in the year while Izzard ran around Britain for charity.

It was an unusual last day of campaigning.

In a subdued start, the four main candidates paused to observe a two minutes’ silence for Armistice Day at the Auchinairn War Memorial.

The focus on turnout then meant their standard campaign messages – the SNP’s attack on 74 years of Labour inaction, and Labour’s claim the SNP is “ripping off” Glasgow – took a back seat.

The clear sense of a two-horse race also allowed the Tories and LibDems to indulge in some eve-of-poll stunts.

Conservative Ruth Davidson risked “crash and burn” headlines by flying a remote-control model plane bearing her name over Springburn Park.

She claimed to have converted “countless” voters on the doorstep to her cause, but chairman Eric Pickles admitted the party still had “a high mountain to climb” north of the border.

Meanwhile, LibDem leader Tavish Scott and his accident-prone candidate Eileen Baxendale, who again forgot her boss’s name, helped wash cars at a business start-up on Balmore Road.

Asked what policy she was trying to illustrate, she said: “That we need people to have the opportunity to come into small businesses … oh, I’m waffling, can I start again?”

Next to the carwash was a scrapyard.

By the end of today, it is likely Ms Baxendale will be sent to it.